As President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, the future of our city of immigrants feels uncertain. This includes concerns ranging from the threat of mass deportations to an unwelcome climate for all immigrants.
We spoke with David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of the nonprofit Immigration Research Initiative, a nonpartisan think tank, about some of these pressing questions. We delved into what protections exist for immigrants and what steps individuals can take to safeguard themselves and their families during these uncertain times.
This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
How realistic is it for Trump’s administration to carry out mass deportations in New York, which is both a sanctuary city and a city with a large immigrant population?
Unfortunately, I think it’s a real fear. It feels pretty different from the 2016 election, where so much of the focus was on building a wall — which was, on the one hand, symbolically and financially frustrating, but, on the other hand, didn’t really have a very immediate impact on immigration. There were other bad things that happened in the first Trump administration, but I feel like what they’re talking about now is much more of a real plan. It involves creating detention camps, bringing people to detention camps, and workplace raids. And involves using the military on U.S. soil.
It’s still hard to imagine how you could have 11 million people deported from this country and what that would look like. So maybe that’s not realistic. But, on the other hand, I think Trump promised people a bloody story, and — I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like part of the point is going to be creating that kind of sense that this is a dangerous place to be for immigrants, that this is a place that is unwelcoming.
Maybe he’s more likely to do that in places other than New York. Although maybe New York is kind of the trophy. Like [Texas] Governor Greg Abbott going after New York as a sanctuary city.
There’s been a lot of concern that the administration would do mass-scale denaturalizations. Are these fears warranted?
It’s amazing to me that we could even be asking that question. I don’t really know how to answer it. I can’t really imagine a mass-scale denaturalization. Taking people’s citizenship away is a big deal. But it’s not impossible to imagine some sort of showcase, individual cases of high-profile people.
What legal and logistical obstacles would the federal government face trying to execute large-scale deportations?
The question to me is, what can cities and states do to try to help make things any safer for people who they recognize are also both part of their communities and to the economy? One thing, in New York State, we’re talking about is the New York for All legislation, which would essentially say: how do you make sure that the state and city agencies are not complicit in, and not participating in, trying to round people up or identify people who are undocumented?
I think some of that is protecting data.
That is different, though, than really being able to protect people. The city and state can say ”we’re not going to participate in this.” But as far as protecting people, probably the number one thing is figuring out how to give access to legal services. It’s pretty expensive, but it’s also really important, and we know that there still will presumably be some kind of legal process.
Given that the NYC metro area accounts for about 10% of the nation’s GDP, is there any leverage it can hold against the federal government if it tries to force actions like mass-scale deportations?
There aren’t that many checks and balances in place anymore for the incoming Trump administration. They also seem determined to do their best to ignore the ones there are. So that’s a challenge.
One kind of check and balance is from businesses. So business leaders standing up and saying what you just said: ‘‘Look, this is a big part of our GDP. This is a big part of what we need to have our businesses function in New York City. Nearly half of the entire labor force is people who are foreign born. This is a big deal.” That might be one source of leverage in the administration.
Those are also the actual economic consequences. We’ve seen this in other countries where some leaders do something, and if the stock market collapses, if inflation really goes up, if there are real economic problems — we’ve heard Elon Musk say something like, ‘‘that’s OK, it’ll be a problem for a while, but we’ll get through it.” I don’t think I’ve heard Trump say that. I don’t know if they might pull back if they start to see real economic troubles.
There’s estimated to be tens of millions of people in mixed-status families in the U.S. What should they be thinking about at this moment that might be helpful, or might offer hope in terms of rights or how to prepare themselves?
It would be a good idea to look at some of the organizations that have ‘Know Your Rights’ information and materials on how to prepare for things. One is the National Immigration Law Center, which has good materials, and there might be guidance on documentation that you could collect, just in case, and ways that you could be a little bit safer. You have to balance reality and fear.
If immigration enforcement becomes more aggressive, are there any protections someone in a mixed family household might have?
I imagine that people have some greater degree of safety if they’re in a mixed-status family. But what Trump is promising is not respecting a lot of the things that we felt like were protecting people before. So it’s not just people who are undocumented. He’s certainly also talking about mixed-status families. He’s also talking about TPS [Temporary Protected Status] recipients, and asylum seekers and people who we thought were pretty safe before. I don’t want to say that everybody should be afraid. But I also think that there is a real concern about there being no apparent limits to what they’re talking about at this point.
What might happen to programs like TPS, DACA, and H1B under a Trump administration?
I don’t think there’s much doubt that all of those are at risk. It certainly seems unlikely that many of those cases will be renewed. So people who have TPS that will expire at a certain point, depending on what country you’re from, it certainly seems possible that that won’t be renewed. Similarly for DACA
I hate predicting things that I hope are not going to come to pass. Besides being terrible, the politics of the incoming administration are just so unpredictable and so volatile. Some people are hoping that what will deter it is the incompetence of the people who are being appointed. But I would say so far it looks like that’s more true to me in many of the other areas than it is in immigration.
Considering the backlog that I’m sure agencies are seeing with immigration cases, would you recommend immigrants seek help or an attorney in another state or city with a smaller immigrant or undocumented population?
What we’ve heard over the years is that New York has a bigger concentration of attorneys, and of course also bigger demand for them, but that many of the places that have fewer immigrants also have fewer attorneys who can manage these cases. So I’m not sure what to say about shopping around for where your best bet is. It seems like what should happen is New York should step up. The city and the state should create enough programs, enough funding, enough opportunities for people to be able to get whatever legal help they need, so that people can do that right here in New York.
Is there anything I should do or NOT do if I am a naturalized citizen? For example, if I go on public assistance or tweet about my hatred of this administration, am I at greater risk for denaturalization?
It is so upsetting to hear that that’s a question for people, because I imagine what that does to our public in general. If you’re a naturalized citizen, I feel like you’re pretty safe. But I understand why even people who are naturalized citizens are feeling concerned. So I don’t know how else to answer that.
I really hope and think that you should still be able to get public programs, and it should not affect you. We’re gonna have to see what happens, what the administration does and what they go with first. This relates to a proposal in the first Trump administration around what they called public charge. This question of, if you got public services, does that mean that you’re not eligible to become a citizen at that point, or getting a green card?
That was a proposal that never was able to be finalized and realized. There was enough outrage, enough pushback. There were also administrative issues that the Trump Administration at that time just didn’t manage very well. On that particular question, they got unprecedented amounts of public feedback saying, ‘this is a horrible idea.’ At that point, it didn’t actually wind up being effective.
For New Yorkers who are thinking about leaving the country because of concerns over immigration policies, what kinds of things should they weigh before making that decision?
I can only say how I feel personally, which is I care very deeply about this country, and it feels really upsetting to me to see the direction that we seem to be going. I want to be here to fight back against that and to try to hold on to what feels to me like these really rich traditions in this country that include welcoming immigrants and being a very diverse place, even though they also include opposition to that.
In New York, more than any place, there is this really rich history of that, and I’m not ready to give up on it. I feel like some people may be understandably afraid of being truly at risk of horrible actions from the government. So, of course, do what you need to protect yourself. As long as I feel personally like it’s not me, I feel like I have some responsibility to stand up for other people.
Everybody needs to make their own choices. But I do feel like, you know, there’s that famous poem about how, first, they came for the Communists, and I wasn’t a Communist, so I didn’t speak out. Then they came for the Jews, and I wasn’t a Jew, so I didn’t speak out. But then they came for me, and who was left to speak out for me?
That’s how I feel. I feel like as long as there’s a possibility of continuing to risk — and, of course, I want my family to be safe — but I do feel like they’re safe. So then I feel like it’s on us to make sure that other people in our community are safe, too.
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