I warned you all in my last pre-election dispatch that the ranked choice system might take a few days to work its way toward an eventual victor. Instead, 33-year-old Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, who polled at just 1% in February, conclusively won the Democratic primary for mayor after mounting a campaign that energized new voters and captured progressive hope. He defeated a slate of candidates that most notably included former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Starting from the first reported results right after the polls closed at 9 p.m., Mamdani led with about 43% of the vote; this lead was somewhat expected as it mainly captured early votes, but the young Democratic Socialist then maintained roughly the same lead throughout the night. The race is technically ongoing as the votes are tallied next week over successive rounds, but preliminary results show Mamdani seven points ahead of Cuomo with almost all results in. This lead is expected to grow as he picks up votes from Comptroller Brad Lander’s supporters––Lander came in third and cross-endorsed with Mamdani. Adding to this momentum, Cuomo has conceded. So far, turnout seems to be a little bit stronger than in 2021, which probably points at least in part to the vaunted strength of Mamdani’s ground game and his army of volunteers.
We all have to remember that this is all far from over, though. Mamdani was not elected New York City mayor, and will in fact be running against the incumbent New York City mayor, Eric Adams, in the November general election. Adams has been staggered by political scandal, staff chaos, a closeness with unpopular President Donald Trump, and other weaknesses, but the power of incumbency is strong and I wouldn’t count him out just yet. There’s also the possibility that Andrew Como, fresh off his defeat, will run himself in on a third-party line, something he already said he would do months ago and reiterated that he was considering last night.
Why a Cuomo run helps Mamdani
Some readers might find this surprising, but I actually think the best case scenario for the Mamdani campaign going forward is if Cuomo does actually run; the former governor and the current mayor share a lot of the same moderate Democrat base and enclaves of support among especially older Black and Latino voters in the city. A general election ballot that featured Mamdani, Cuomo, Adams, and GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa would probably result in Adams and Cuomo splitting the same pool of voters and providing Mamdani a clearer glidepath to the win. (As with the 2021 election, nobody really cares about Sliwa, who stands practically no chance of winning.)
If Cuomo stays out and Mamdani runs essentially head-on with Adams, it might make it a tougher race for the assemblymember for a couple of reasons, including that the dynamics are just very different than they are in a Democratic primary election. The party registration requirement of the primaries means that only registered Democrats could participate in this primary, and Adams could conceivably pull a lot of independent or outright Republican voters in the general, especially if he’s able to make inroads with some chunk of NYC Republicans that appreciate his relationship with Trump and see him as best positioned to derail Mamdani’s chances. Predictably, a lot of the conservative and MAGA establishment is already freaking out about the results.
It’s gonna get ugly
If you thought that the never-Mamdani campaign was strident in the primary, it will be all-out for the general; this is no longer a primary where competing Democrats have to try not to fully alienate chunks of their own electorate. I think a lot of big donors, conservative influencers and organizations, corporate interests, and other political actors had been hoping that Cuomo would prevail and head off the possibility of the Democratic socialist candidate actually appearing on the general election ballot with a real shot at becoming the next NYC mayor. That’s not how things turned out, and I think a lot of forces will go to the hilt in trying to play up Mamdani as an inexperienced danger to the city that will drive away businesses, derail the city’s budget and so on. These messages will have some potency, though I’m skeptical about the extent to which they could possibly sink Mamdani, especially given that so much of the same was tossed at de Blasio during his own campaigns, to middling effect.
A politics of coalition building
The other winner here is Brad Lander. Sure, he did not actually win the election he campaigned for, but he massively raised his profile with an almost uniformly positive valence, engaging in genuine bravery by getting detained by federal agents at the downtown immigration court and acting as a practical evangelist for the concept of ranked choice voting, which had him campaigning with Mamdani during the home stretch. I have to say, regardless of whether you supported one or the other or neither, I think it was inspiring to see both still campaign for themselves but also demonstrate that the system enables a collaborative spirit and that elections don’t have to be run with rancor. There’s some talk of him serving under a potential future Mamdani administration, though I think if I were a Lander political advisor I’d start eyeballing some congressional races.
There were other elections in NYC!
Toggling to other races, it seems like every City Council incumbent who ran has held onto their seat pretty handily, including in what were seen as some tough races. Perhaps most notably, Brooklyn Councilmember Shahana Hanif, who represents a district anchored in Park Slope, crushed well-funded opponent Maya Kornberg in a race in which Israel’s faraway campaign against Gaza came to dominate even more-so than it did in the mayoral primary; Kornberg’s effort attracted big donations from all over the country, but ultimately Hanif cruised to victory. Meanwhile, in Queens, District 19 will be a race to watch in November: Benjamin Chou locked in the Democratic nomination with 67% of the vote and will now aim to flip back the seat held by incumbent and City Council minority whip Vickie Paladino. Several primary races, including some Council-level Republican primaries, remain technically undecided; THE CITY has helpfully compiled what’s pending.
The other two citywide races resulted in incumbent Public Advocate Jumaane WIlliams easily beating Adams-aligned Assemblymember Jennifer Rajkumar, who’d tried to paint him as too progressive, and Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine clinching the Democratic nomination for comptroller from Councilmember Justin Brannan. I don’t know that there’s much to say about the latter; I’ve known both men for years and personally think both are great and eminently qualified to be the city’s chief fiscal officer. Brannan didn’t win this one but I still think he’s got a good political feature ahead.
Brass tacks, we’ll have plenty to talk about as the general develops over the next few months, but I think what we saw here was the theory that there are plenty of relatively progressive and dormant voters out there that just need to be reached by a candidate with an inspiring message basically borne out, of course with the heavy outreach and turnout operation needed to make it a reality. I think Mamdani has created a playbook— now let’s see if it carries him to City Hall.
