As is her wont, our intrepid founder S. Mitra Kalita has sent along some questions on the mayoral race that I’m going to take a stab at answering, now heading into its final stretch. Let me just note for the record that the New York Daily News Editorial Board is also currently doing interviews with the candidates for a potential endorsement, but I am here speaking in my individual capacity.
Is it confusing to the public that both Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams will be on the ballot in November?
I think by this point most people have probably forgotten that Cuomo announced that he also intends to run on some made up ballot line, called the “Fight and Deliver Party” (eye-roll) in November, regardless of whether or not he wins the Democratic primary. This seems to be more of a gimmick; if he outright loses the primary, I don’t see how he shores up the support to then win on some third-party line, especially running against incumbent Mayor Eric Adams now. It’s still all a mess, and I think a bad thing for New Yorkers who already find the municipal electoral system kind of confusing.
We heard Zohran Mamdani encouraged New Yorkers to give to Adrienne Adams, our current speaker of the council and a candidate from Queens. What do you make of this?
It certainly doesn’t hurt that Mamdani already maxed out his fundraising limit months ago, so he can’t really take any more monetary contributions, though, by all reports, has built a pretty impressive volunteer operation. I think Mamdani’s move is also not just out of the goodness of his heart but is somewhat strategic, a recognition that in a ranked choice voting system, a certain tide can lift multiple boats. I would assume that he is gambling, probably correctly, that increased turnout for Speaker Adams could backsplash on him if and when she is eliminated in a particular round of the voting.
The progressive-side candidates in general I think are banking on this, that while a Lander voter could easily then rank Mamdani, Speaker Adams, and Myrie – or vice versa – the same is probably not as reflexively true of a Cuomo voter. I’m not entirely sure who the median Cuomo voter would rank second, to be honest; perhaps one of the other centrist but far lower-profile candidates like former DNC Vice Chair Michael Blake, or someone like Speaker Adams just on account of her experience.
We’ve been seeing a slew of announcements for debates related to the primary, but only a handful of candidates are showing up. How important are debates to this process?
I think it’s worth drawing a distinction between debates and forums. The latter are generally organized by community groups, news outlets, political clubs, and advocacy organizations, somewhat informally and often geared around certain particular issues like immigration or affordability (take the New York Law School’s forum on parks, recreation, and open space or City Limits’ forum on NYCHA and housing). For a candidate like Cuomo or Mayor Adams, the political calculus of attending a lot of these forums is pretty clear-cut and not positive: they don’t really have to raise their profile, as they are already the best-known candidates in the race. They are also each saddled with numerous controversies that could get brought up in an environment where they can’t just refuse to answer or walk away.
All it takes is for them to fumble one answer particularly badly or phrase something in a way that can be neatly cut into an attack ad for one of these forums to become a huge headache, even a defining moment in the election. (As an aside, years ago when I accompanied a voting rights group to Albany as a young reporter for Gotham Gazette, then-State Senator Marty Golden, in a back-and-forth with an organizer, said of “Palestinian and Arab communities” in his district: “Do they vote? No.” That was included in my report and became a rallying cry of sorts for opponents in his next election, who wanted to let him know Arabs do vote. He lost. Slogans are pretty powerful.)
So these bigger-name candidates have little to really gain and plenty to potentially lose from being too out there in the public eye. The debates are a little bit different in that NYC law requires candidates who have received public matching funds to participate. Mayor Adams is ultimately not running in the Democratic primary at all, so he won’t feature, but Cuomo has received matching funds, even if his campaign was fined over $600,000 for allegedly improperly coordinating with an outside spending group. Most other notable Democratic primary candidates have received matching funds as well, with the exceptions of Speaker Adams, State Senator Jessica Ramos, and Blake.
The more esoteric question about the extent to which debates actually matter I think is unanswerable as a general principle. Obviously, Biden’s disastrous performance in his last July debate against Trump was the trigger for him dropping out of the race. On the other hand, I don’t think the average voter– who for a New York City municipal election is likely to already be at least a semi-informed political partisan given our terrible rates of turnout – is necessarily making a decision based on debates alone.
That said, given some of the name recognition issues that I’ve mentioned before, a debate is a great way for a candidate that is otherwise flying under the radar to break through. I can see a situation where a relatively low-key candidate like Comptroller Brad Lander is able to have a strong enough debate performance that it buoys his campaign in a way that builds on itself. And, once more, our ranked choice system comes into play in the sense that a debate might not necessarily determine a voter’s first choice, but could well determine their second or third, which in a race like this could really move the needle.
We heard reports that Black New Yorkers are uniting behind Andrew Cuomo? Is that true and how to explain the pull?
My understanding of that chatter isn’t so much that Cuomo has Black voters on lock, but that it seems like he might draw them away from Mayor Adams, who received their overwhelming support in his first mayoral election. The reasons for that I think are relatively straightforward; most voters are generally vibes-based, but Black voters in particular have a reputation for aiming to be rather pragmatic in their concerns, selecting candidates that they perceive to promise the best mix of public safety, affordability, and steady-hand governance. For all his foibles and scandals, Cuomo retains the reputation of having been a competent manager of the state, a perspective I personally disagree with, but which has been an overarching narrative reinforced by his daily pandemic briefings.
Speaking of Cuomo, I should probably discuss the Justice Department’s just-announced criminal inquiry into the former governor. It centers on alleged misstatements and falsehoods that Cuomo made under oath to the House subcommittee investigating the state’s pandemic response. Now, I want to be clear that two things can be true here: it is entirely possible and I think well-supported by the available evidence that Cuomo was not entirely truthful and forthcoming in that hearing. It is also the case that the criminal referral came from a deeply partisan source– House Oversight Committee chairman Rep. James Comer– who has dedicated himself to using the resources of his office to advance Trump‘s agenda and go after political rivals.
I very highly doubt that such an investigation would be launched against someone the Trump administration did not have a political reason for going after, and indeed, I would argue that multiple administration officials have already plainly and heavily perjured themselves before Congress, including RFK Jr. and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who has repeatedly mischaracterized the administration’s immigration efforts. The Trump Justice Department has also at this point launched a criminal probe against perennial Trump antagonist NY Attorney General Letitia James over a complete non-issue and is attempting to prosecute New Jersey Rep. LaMonica McIver for felony assault for getting caught in a jostle with Homeland Security personnel who were illegally trying to bar her from entering an immigration detention center (no, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that these both happen to be Black women).
What this investigation could ultimately do to Cuomo‘s electoral chances is unclear to me. Obviously, the long-standing criminal investigation into Mayor Adams resulted in a loss of public confidence and has probably helped put him on the defensive even as an incumbent mayor. Nonetheless, I think the public perceived that to be an investigation with some merit and basis, whereas this seems like a nakedly ideological one. If anything, there’s a chance that this might actually help Cuomo, in that he can position himself as the candidate that Trump doesn’t want to be mayor to the point that he’s directing the Justice Department’s resources against him. We’ll have to see.
All in all, I’d say the state of the race is pretty unsettled. Cuomo seems like a clear front-runner but certainly not the predetermined winner, an important distinction. I think the official primary debate on June 4 could shake things up a little, as will the ad campaigns that are now gaining steam. It’ll be an exciting next month for sure.
